I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.' Nate Silver behaviorexperimentobserve Change image and share on social
We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. Nate Silver calibrateestimateprediction Change image and share on social
I have the same friends and the same bad habits. Nate Silver badfriendhabit Change image and share on social
We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. Nate Silver informationlearnmean Change image and share on social
First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views. Nate Silver coveroddpeople Change image and share on social
You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects. Nate Silver arbitrarybuildchoice share on social
Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. Nate Silver accuracyperceivestatistically Change image and share on social
Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him. Nate Silver applycaesaromen Change image and share on social
On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves. Nate Silver averagedatumnumber Change image and share on social