Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. Nate Silver americandeclinedirection share on social
It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. Nate Silver analysiskindstrange Change image and share on social
I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts. Nate Silver analystdozenhalf Change image and share on social
I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. Nate Silver choiceendeavorgood Change image and share on social
All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to. Nate Silver possiblystufftime Change image and share on social
People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. Nate Silver ephemeralpeoplesuccess Change image and share on social
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. Nate Silver baseballcompetitiondatum Change image and share on social
When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. Nate Silver futuremakemistake Change image and share on social
We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. Nate Silver comfortableprobabilityuncertainty Change image and share on social